Tropical Storm 'PHYAN' expected to cross the coast between Alibagh and Valsad

The cyclonic storm PHYAN over East Central Arabian Sea further moved Northwards and lay centered at 0000 UTC of today, the 11 November, 2009 over East Central Arabian Sea near Lat. 16.00 N and Long. 71.50 E, 350 km South-SouthWest of Mumbai (43003) and 620 km south-southwest of Surat (43285).

Satellite imagery indicates CDO pattern. The intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over Arabian Sea North of Lat 14.50 N East of Long 70.00 E, Gulf of Cambay, Konkan & Goa, adjoining Madhya Maharashtra and SouthEast Gujarat.

Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated to be about 35 knots around system centre. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system centre. The estimated central pressure is about 992 hpa.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is high (around 20-30 knots). The upper level divergence is maximum in the NorthEast sector of the system. Sea surface temperature is about 29-300c. The system is supported by upper level divergence and lower level convergence. An upper troposphereic ridge roughly runs along latitude 15.00 n and hence the system centre lies very close to but to the north the ridge position. During past 12 hours, the system has moved roughly at the rate of 10 knots. It is expected accelerate as it will move away from ridge.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move North-NorthEastwards and cross South Gujarat and North Maharashtra coast between Alibagh and Valsad between 1200 UTC and 1500 UTC of today, the of 11 November 2009.

Source : India Meteorological Department

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