Gold and Crude Oil - Sep 21, 2023 - HDFC Securities

Posted On : 2023-09-21 20:29:24( TIMEZONE : IST )

Gold and Crude Oil - Sep 21, 2023 - HDFC Securities

By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities

Gold prices fell on Thursday, with the spot gold price at Comex trading lower by 0.32% at $1924 per ounce. While the gold October future contract at MCX is trading lower by 0.75% at Rs 58955 per 10 grams.

Gold prices turned lower after the FOMC policy outcome. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee held its target range at 5.25% to 5.5%, while updated quarterly projections showed 12 of 19 officials favoured another rate hike in 2023. Policymakers also see less easing next year, according to the new forecasts. Higher interest rates are generally negative for non-yielding metals. Meanwhile, the dollar index surged to a fresh swing at 105.33, the highest level since March 9, which also weighed on gold prices.

Looking ahead, traders will take cues from more US macro data, including weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing PMI data, and existing home sales due later today. From a technical perspective, Comex spot gold has strong resistance at $1945; until price trades below this level, traders should avoid buying. The MCX Gold October future has resistance at 59350 and support at 58960.0. A fall below the 58960 level will drag the price to the 58750 level.

Crude oil prices extended their fall as the Federal Reserve hinted that at least one more hike in interest rates may be necessary this year to combat persistent inflation, overshadowing signs of a tighter physical crude market. With benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil trading lower by 0.55% at $88.70 per barrel against the previous close, Brent futures fell near $92.50 a barrel, dropping for a third day in the longest losing run in almost a month. The Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on oil as well as other risky assets. Meanwhile, US inventories declined by 2.14 million barrels last week.

Technically, there is a short-term trend reversal in crude oil. A shooting star candlestick formation is seen on the daily chart, which is a bearish reversal pattern. We expect the crude oil prices to decline further in today's session. MCX crude oil October future has support at 7325 and resistance at 7480. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil has resistance at $90.70 and support at $87.50 for the day.

Source : Equity Bulls


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