By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.
Gold prices traded up on Tuesday, with the spot gold price at Comex was trading higher by 0.24% at $1963 per ounce. Gold August future contract at MCX were trading up by 0.23% at Rs 59780 per 10 grams by noon session.
Gold prices are stuck in a narrow range as ahead of important US macro data. The US consumer price index print for May, which may affect the Fed decision, is due later today. The Federal Reserve, along with its peers in Europe and Japan, are expected to set key rates later this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision to be announced on Wednesday. Lower interest rates are a benefit for non-yielding metals. Meanwhile the US dollar index is trading lower by 0.30% at 102.80 in Asian trading hours on Tuesday, providing some support to yellow metals. Going forward, we expect a range-bound trend to continue in gold prices before the outcome of US consumer inflation data, and post-data volatility is likely to be expected. Comex spot gold has immediate support at $1940 and resistance at $1983. MCX Gold August future is likely to find support at Rs 59465 and resistance at Rs 60370.
Crude oil prices recovered after price hit three months low in the previous session, with the benchmark NYMEX WTI Crude oil was trading up by 0.66 % at $67.55 per barrel on Tuesday. Short-term sentiment improved after world's second top oil consumer country China's decision to cut borrowing costs for the first time in ten months to prop up its economic growth and restore market confidence. Also, investors expect Federal Reserve's to pause interest-rate hikes this week, which could buoy consumption.
On the technical front, we expect crude oil prices to consolidate at the lower end with a positive bias. For the day, NYMEX WTI crude oil has resistance at $70.70 per barrel and finds support at $66.80/ per barrel. MCX Crude Oil June future has support at Rs 5520 per barrel and resistance at Rs 5735per barrel.