By Mr. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities.
Gold:Gold prices traded marginally lower on Monday, with spot gold prices at Comex were trading down by 0.05% at $1855 per ounce. Gold April future contract at MCX were trading up by 0.20% at Rs 55870 per 10 grams by noon session.
Gold prices hovered around previous week high on Monday morning trades with slightly negative bias as short-term traders took profit after prices climbed by 2.51% last week. US Dollar traded firm in morning trade after dropped by 0.66% last week. Gold prices remained under pressured last few weeks as uptick in US dollar and yields after series of strong US macro data and hawkish comment from several Fed members but last week sentiment improved after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated the case for a 25-basis point hike in March meeting. Looking for this week, Fed Chair Powell testifies, US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are important macro data for gold price outlook. We expect bullion prices will consolidate in broader range with positive bias, however selling pressure will likely to see near major resistance level. Comex Spot Gold having strong resistance at $1870/$1895 per ounce and support at $1827/1810 per ounce, for the week. MCX Gold April future has resistance at Rs 56300 per 10 grams and support place at Rs 55480 per 10 grams.
Crude Oil prices traded down with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil were trading lower by 0.40% at $79.20 per barrel on Monday. MCX Crude oil March future was trading lower by 0.09% at 6495 by noon session. Oil prices turned lower on Monday as demand from China will likely to lower than market earlier estimated. China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5%, lower than market expectations of 5.5% growth in the world's second-largest oil consumer.
Crude Oil prices last few weeks consolidated in broader range over mix fundamentals and will expect to follow the same trend for this week. NYMEX WTI Crude oil prices face resistance at $80.0/$82.25. per barrel and supports at $75.05 per barrel. MCX Crude Oil Mar future has strong supports at Rs 6240/6170 and resistances at Rs 6580/6700 for this week.
Base metals prices traded lower on Monday after forecast lower growth from top industrial metals consumer China. Expectations of a strong demand recovery from China have been supporting metals prices last week after strong Chinese PMI data, but a modest growth target of around 5% for from the world's biggest consumer of the metal could mean less-than-expected actual consumption for the industrial metals. Also easy of supply concern from Peru weighed on price, a truce that had allowed mining companies to restart Copper production.
We expect Base Metals prices in short term trend remains moderate bearish and selling pressure will likely to see on pullback. This week investors focus will be on Fed chair Powell testifies, Chinese CPI and PPI data and US Nonfarm Payroll for further outlook. MCX Copper March future has strong support at Rs 745.0 once price break this support fall will likely extend. Area around Rs 770 is resistance level for the week.