Market Commentary

Weekly Market Report - Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President - Master Capital Services Ltd

Posted On : 2023-10-01 14:43:17( TIMEZONE : IST )

Weekly Market Report - Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President - Master Capital Services Ltd

Nifty and Sensex recovered to close higher on Friday, as advances led by the pharma, metal and media sectors. On a weekly basis, Benchmark Indices declined for the second week in a row. Nifty Realty and pharma rose the most whereas IT and Media declined the most this week.

US 10-year Bond Yield rose above 4.5% for the first time since 2007, as investors and traders taking cues from Hawkish Federal Reserve policy, with large fiscal deficits, decline in jobless claims and persistent inflation are the key factors to watch.

The US dollar Index is trading at a 10-month high and remains on track for weekly gains. The dollar has jumped on expectations that the U.S. economy will remain more resilient to higher interest rates after the Federal Reserve last week guided that it may hike rates further and is likely to hold them higher for longer.

Crude Oil crossed $95 after official data showed that US crude stocks fell more than expected, adding to worries about supply tightness amid production cuts by OPEC.

US initial jobless claims for the week ended 23rd Sept rose at 2.04lk compared to 2.02lk but remained below the expectation of 2.15lk. US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in Q2. It primarily reflects a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment.

The market will take cues from some major domestic and global macroeconomic data such as S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI data of different countries, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, OPEC Meeting, US Factory orders, crude oil inventories, US Initial Jobless claims, India Interest rate decision, RBI Monetary and Credit Information Review, India Forex Reserves, US Non-Farm Payroll, US unemployment rate, auto sales number will be in focus.

NIFTY has experienced a notable correction, declining approximately 3% from its all-time high. However, on the weekly chart, we are witnessing some encouraging signs of bullish momentum. The formation of a bullish Doji star pattern, coupled with the presence of a bullish trendline originating from the downward movement, suggests a potential reversal in sentiment.

One key level to watch is 19500, which represents a significant demand zone. This level is likely to attract more buyers who see it as an opportunity to enter the market for upside potential to 20000 marks. Below 19500 it is likely to be a bearish sign for the targets of 19000-18800.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty also Formed a doji star pattern on the weekly chart a bullish confirmation will be considered above 45000. It appears to have established a robust demand zone within the 44000-44200 range, making it an opportune area to initiate buying positions and price drop to that level. Looking ahead, it's important to note that there is a resistance level expected at 45000-45200, which could pose a challenge for further upward movement in the index.

Source : Equity Bulls


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