Mr. Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
After showing a gradual upside bounce in the last few session, Nifty witnessed steep fall on Monday on the back drop of sharp negative US market of Friday and weak global cues and closed the day lower by 246 points amidst a range movement. After opening with a huge downside gap of 370 points, the market made an attempt to show gradual upside recovery from the lows in the better part of the session. The range movement continued for the whole session and the opening downside gap remains partially filled.
A reasonable positive candle was formed on the daily chart at the lows with gap down opening. Technically, this market action signal a sharp downside momentum. The unfilled opening downside gap of Monday could be considered as a bearish breakaway gap and if this gap remains unfilled for the next few sessions then that could mean market is in middle of a down trend, signaling more weakness ahead.
The recent support of 17340-23.6% Fib. Retracement has been broken on the downside and the next lower target for the Nifty as per Fibonacci retracement comes around 16920, which is 32.8% retracement. The negative sequence of lower tops and bottoms is confirmed and the present weakness could be in line with the formation of new lower bottom (lower bottom reversal needs to be confirmed). Immediate resistance is at 17400 levels.