The cumulative trade deficit for FY22 widened to more than a decade high at USD 192 bn (FY13 trade deficit was USD 190 bn). For FY23, Acuité expects the trade deficit to widen further, given the spiralling crude oil prices thereby putting additional pressure on current account deficit (CAD).
As of now, in the base case Acuité expects crude oil price to average at USD 97 pb in FY23 (average of monthly future prices for the next 12 contracts). Acuité imparts upside risk to it's CAD expectation of USD 85 bn in FY23 i.e. around 2.7% of GDP from an estimated USD 55 bn deficit in FY22.
India's merchandise trade deficit moderated to USD 18.7 bn in Mar-22 from a deficit of USD 20.8 bn in Feb-22 as per the preliminary estimates released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The deficit pressures moderated led by significant rise in exports in Mar-22 as against imports. In value terms, exports rose to a record high level of USD 40.4 bn in Mar-22 from USD 34.6 bn in the previous month. On the other hand, imports rose to USD 59.1 bn in Mar-22 from USD 55.4 bn.