NTPC - Q4FY20 First Cut - ICICI Securities

(CMP - Rs. 97; Market Cap - Rs. 96027 crore)

NTPC reported an operationally decent set of Q4FY20 results. Despite lockdown impact in March 2020, the company posted better generation data vis-à-vis expectations. The company has met its capacity addition target in FY20 and has aggressive additions plans over FY21-22E. Optically PAT looks ahead of below estimates, which is on account of higher tax outgo on account of settlement of previous tax disputes to tune of Rs. 2660 crore under the Vivad se Vishwas scheme.

Q4FY20 Earnings Summary

- Reported revenues came in at Rs. 27246.9 crore vs. estimate of Rs. 22440.7 crore. The key reason for the beat was higher than expected generation during Q4FY20 at 68.3 billion units vs. expectations of 65.6 billion units. On the other hand, energy sold was also higher than estimates at 63.5 BU's vs. 60.6 billion units. PLF's of the coal plants was at 69.5% vs. 77.6% in Q4FY19. As of FY20, the commercial capacity stood at 49695 MW whereas the installed capacity stood at 50355 MW

- During FY20, the company on a consolidated basis has added capacity to the tune of 4680 MW. The company is confident of achieve minimum capacity addition of 4740 MW and maximum range of 5540 MW. In FY22, the company is striving to add capacities to the tune of 6880 MW

- EBITDA came in at Rs. 7317.7 crore vs. our estimate of Rs. 5727.8 crore, mainly on account of higher revenues. The fuel cost per unit during Q4FY20 stood at Rs. 2.32/unit vs. Rs. 2.13/unit QoQ

- Reported PAT came in at Rs. 1252.4 crore vs. our estimate of Rs. 2982.6 crore, on account of higher tax outgo on account of settlement of previous tax disputes to tune of Rs. 2660 crore under the Vivad se Vishwas scheme

- From the balance sheet perspective, receivables has shot up significantly from Rs. 8433 crore in March 2019 to Rs. 15688 crore as of March 2020 on account of overdues from SEB's

We would be coming out with a detailed report soon.

Shares of NTPC LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.97.05 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 96.2. The total number of shares traded during the day was 527945 in over 2717 trades.

The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 97.4 and intraday low of 95.65. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 51067045.

Source : Equity Bulls

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