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Market Commentary
9950 remains crucial support - Weekly Market Outlook - Arihant Capital Markets Ltd
Posted On : 2017-10-15 08:50:01( TIMEZONE : IST )
Views on markets by Arpit Jain, AVP at Arihant Capital Markets
NIFTY50 hit fresh 52-weeks high, staged a smart recovery after the volatile session on Wednesday and closed above 10,150 levels while flows continued to remain mixed. On the valuation front NIFTY50 is trading at trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 26.
Rupee gained on Friday after data showed inflation held steady, Global cues remained positive with US markets closing at record highs and all this data could help markets sustain the up move.
The focus will continue to be on results in this month. Sectors like financials, auto, metals, and consumer could see interest on back of results.
On macro front, WPI inflation data for September 2017 will be announced on Monday, October 16. Mobile subscriber data for September will be announced on October 16-20. Crude, refinery output for September will be announced on October 20-27.
On the global front, Chinese CPI, Chinese PPI and European Trade Balance data will be announced on Monday, October 16. UK CPI and US Industrial Production data will be announced on Tuesday, October 17. UK Unemployment Rate and US Housing Starts data will be announced on Wednesday, October 18. Japanese Trade Balance, Chinese GDP, Chinese Industrial Production and US Unemployment Claims data will be announced on Thursday, October 19. European Current Account, US Existing Home Sales data will be announced on Friday, October 20.
In the coming week, the initial public offering (IPO) of Godrej Agrovet Ltd will list its equity shares on exchanges on Monday, October 16. The issue price was Rs 460 per share. MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO will list its equity shares on exchanges on Wednesday, October 18. The issue price was Rs 459 per share.
Major companies which will announce Jul-Sep quarter earnings this week include Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Colgate Palmolive, DHFL, Federal Bank, ACC, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Wipro and Ultratech Cement.
Technical Outlook
The momentum indicators viz. the RSI both on the weekly& daily charts is gaining momentum. This suggests that upside momentum is likely to continue.
At present Nifty has resistance at 10286 - 10355 - 10435 levels whereas on the downside it has support at 10048 - 9979 - 9899 levels.
In coming week if nifty trades and close above 10217 level then it is likely to test 10286 - 10355 - 10435 levels. However, if nifty trades and close below 10117 level then it can test 10048 - 9979 - 9899 levels.
Broadly, we are of the opinion that for current week 9950 remains crucial support for the ongoing up move. Hence, as long as nifty holds the mentioned level, we are likely to witness upside momentum. In such scenario there is high probability that nifty may test 10350 - 10450 levels in couple of weeks.
