Cairn India (CMP Rs324, REDUCE)
Cut volume, earnings estimates
- Sri Lanka block appraisal to continue till CY14; expect preliminary resource estimate in CY12
- Lower Rajasthan FY12E volume by 16% to 133 kbpd; expect FY12 exit rate of 175kbpd
- Increase FY12, FY13 earnings estimates by 9% , 7% on weaker rupee, higher FY12 expected oil price
- DCF-based target price up 5% to Rs278/share.
- Maintain Reduce as stock discounts US$89/bbl, which is higher than our long-term oil price of US$75/bbl.