Rupee Wrap - Feb 22, 2022 - Reliance Securities

Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

The Indian Rupee weakened against the dollar, posting its biggest decline in nearly 2 weeks, as the Russia-Ukraine standoff escalated, and oil prices spiked.

The Rupee ended at 74.88 this Tuesday from 74.51 close on Monday.

Rupee had earlier weakened to an intraday low at 74.99 per dollar.

The rupee tracked other Asian currencies and broad dollar strength as well as a decline in equities across the region amid risk aversion.

Meanwhile, Rupee forward premiums jumped after the Reserve Bank of India yesterday said it will undertake a two-year sell/buy USD/INR swap auction of $5 billion on March 8.

The one-year forward premium jumped to 3.1625 rupees from 3.0175 rupees yesterday. The implied one-year rose to 4.22% from 4.05%.

Meanwhile, NDF is at 74.79/80 this Tuesday evening vs a close at 74.53 in the previous session.

Indian government bond yields settled higher for the second straight day as New Delhi goes ahead with a debt auction this week.

The benchmark 6.54% bond ended at 6.75%, its highest since February 9, vs. a close of 6.69% on Monday.

Technically, the USDINR Spot pair has bounced back from its 200-Daily Moving Average at 74.40 level and if sustains above 74.92 level it could witness a bullish momentum up to 75.09-75.25 levels. Support is at 74.70-74.55 levels.

The USDINR Spot pair could trade in a range of 74.60-75.00 levels in the coming session.

The U.S. Dollar is trading flat to weaker this early Tuesday evening in Asian trade, however downside will be capped amid safe haven appeal for the greenback amid escalation of tensions in Ukraine.

The Euro was stronger, while the Sterling and the Yen was weaker against the dollar.

Technically, if Dollar Index trades above $96.00 it could see a sideways to marginal upside momentum up to the resistance zone at $96.23-$96.55 levels. A trade below could pull the Index to the support zone at $95.90-$95.66 levels.

Source : Equity Bulls

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