We continue to retain our FY22 GDP growth forecast at 10.0% - Acuite Macro Pulse - November 2021

India's annualized Q2 FY22 GDP growth came in at 8.4% from a record high print of 20.1% YoY. In addition to favourable base of the last year, the expansion was driven by pick-up in pace of consumer expenditure followed by increase in gross fixed capital formation i.e. public investments. From the supply side, GVA also registered a similar outturn with annualized print clocking a growth of 8.5% in Q2 FY22 from 18.8% in Q1 FY22. The expansion was primarily driven by a sharper growth in services (10.2% YoY) followed by agriculture sector (4.5% YoY). On sequential basis, post the second wave driven contraction in Q1 FY22, the GDP and GVA print have expectedly, recorded a strong expansion of 10.4% and 7.9% respectively. The sequential revival in economic activity was clearly reflected in our proprietary AMEP (Acuité Macroeconomic Performance) index expanding by 7.2% QoQ in Q2 FY22 from a contraction of 9.3% in Q1 FY22.

Acuité is glad to bring you the eleventh edition of Acuité Macro Pulse (Nov 2021)

Key takeaways

• Growth momentum in the month of Oct-21, as highlighted in our previous edition of Acuité Macro Pulse, has already seen considerable upside with most high frequency indicators recovering to or above pre-pandemic levels.
• Since then, in early part of Nov-21, we however, notice some slowdown in incremental economic activity, attributable to seasonality on account of Diwali holidays.
• We remain mindful of risks from global supply chain disruptions, elevated commodity prices and marginal slowdown in global growth amid resurgence in Covid cases. While another wave of Covid in India does remain a possibility amidst discovery of a new Covid variant, the economic fallout is expected to be much lower.

Read more about growth here: Link to the report

Source : Equity Bulls

Keywords

AcuiteRating MacroPulse November2021