India: Monsoon Tracker: Normal again? - Kotak

Progress of monsoon: normal monsoon

- Till July 5, cumulative rainfall was 6.5% above normal with the weekly rainfall 20.8% above normal. On a regional cumulative basis, most of India remained in normal to excess rainfall with parts of south India, and east India remaining deficient. Out of the 36 sub-divisions across India, till date, 12 have received excess rainfall, 21 have received normal rainfall, and three have received deficient rainfall.

Retail food price momentum: increases in cereals and vegetables

- Average weekly price levels indicate that food prices have modestly risen over the last week. Vegetables' prices increased 7.1% while pulses' prices fell 0.2%. Cereals' prices increased 0.9% while oils and fats' prices fell 0.7% over last week in the week starting June 27. We note that this is based on Department of Consumer Affairs daily/weekly data and should not be assumed as the official retail inflation data.

Progress of sowing: acreage increases over last year

- Kharif acreage as of June 30 was 18.9% higher than the same period last year. Rice sowing is 0.4% lower at 39 mn hectares. Oilseed acreage is 8.6% lower at 2.6 mn hectares and pulses acreage at 1.9 mn hectares is 44.2% higher than last year's. Coarse cereals' acreage is 7.7% higher at 3.8 mn hectares. Sugarcane and cotton acreages are at 4.8 mn hectares (4.5 mn hectares last year) and 4.6 mn hectares (1.9 mn hectares last year) respectively.

Reservoir levels: deficient especially South India and parts of West India

- Reservoir levels remained negative compared to long term average levels. Larger river basins of Ganga and Narmada are in surplus while Indus, Godavari, and Krishna are in deficit. Overall, reservoirs and basins are around 10% below long term average for week ending July 6.

Source : Equity Bulls

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