IMD forecast near normal rainfall during South-West Monsoon

The long range forecast for the 2007 South-west monsoon (June to September) by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 95% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. This is based upon the newly-adopted statistical forecast system.

IMD will update the above forecast in June 2007 as a part of the second stage forecasts. Separate forecasts for the July rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India also will be issued.

India Meteorological Department has been adopting a two-stage forecast strategy for the south-west monsoon rainfall for the past four years. The first long range forecast for the south-west monsoon season (June-September) rainfall is issued in April using the 8 parameter models and the forecast update is issued in June based on the 10 parameter models.

IMD has been making consistent efforts to improve the long range forecasting system. IMD has now developed new statistical models for forecasting south-west monsoon rainfall (June - September) for the country as a whole, which are being introduced this year.

Source : Press Information Bureau

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