Copper - Weekly Wrap - Oct 9, 2021 - Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities
2021-10-10 16:26:36 (Time Zone: IST)
Copper prices rebounded this week after surprisingly weak U.S. jobs data tipped the dollar lower.
The U.S. economy created 194,000 jobs last month, the fewest jobs in nine months, compared to a consensus forecast of 500,000 jobs.
Additionally, prices also moved higher helped by a rebound on global equities markets, falling exchange inventories and the threat of supply disruption at a mine in Peru.
Reuters reported that an indigenous community in Peru's Espinar province have blocked a key mining road this week and could plan to continue the blockade indefinitely, in protest against the government and Glencore Antapaccay copper mine.
The conflict comes a day after the government defused a similar standoff in nearby Chumbivilcas.
Meanwhile, on-warrant stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell to 82,850 tonnes from 168,075 tonnes on Sept. 21. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses at 43,525 are the lowest since 2009 and lent support.
Looking ahead, copper could remain sideways.
The failure of a major Chinese property developer that has ignited debt worries for the construction sector and a coal shortage that has cut power supplies to manufacturers will keep prices under pressure in the short run.
Additionally, markets could track the economic calendar next week with total social financing, new Yuan loans and M2 money supply expected out of China.
Additionally, trade balance, CPI and PPI data out of China will also be the major trigger for the markets next week.
On the other hand, longer term horizon remains bullish for the metal due to robust copper demand as part of the global energy transition from charging stations to solar plants.
Technically, over the 3 weeks LME Copper has traded in broad range of $9000-9500 and only a break on either side will provide the markets with fresh ranges.
Domestically, MCX Copper continuous contract has remained in broad band of 698-740 and only a break on either side will provide the markets with fresh ranges.
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