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Post Market views - Sep 9, 2021 - Mr. Binod Modi, Head Strategy at Reliance Securities

Posted On: 2021-09-09 20:57:49 (Time Zone: IST)


Domestic benchmark indices traded in rangebound today and continued to oscillate between minor gains and losses. Metals, IT and FMCG witnessed rebound today, while financials (excluding PSU Banks), pharma and realty witnessed profit booking. Notably, buying momentum remained visible in midcap and smallcap stocks as sustained earnings growth visibility lifted sentiments in these counters. Volatility index softened today over 4%. Notably, benchmark Nifty recorded modest gain of around 0.2% during the week, while ~Rs1.3lakh crore was added in investors' wealth in the week. Nestle, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Hindalco were among top Nifty gainers, while SBI Life, Titan, HDFC Life and Divi's Lab were laggards.

Domestic bourses appeared to be fatigue in recent trades after witnessing record highs in the last week. However, we continue to believe that high frequency key economic indicators for Aug'21 in the form of GST collection, railway freight, auto sales volume despite semiconductor issues, power consumption, import-export data and fuel volumes indicate a sustained economic recovery on YoY comparison. While 1QFY22 GDP growth 20.1% indicating a sharp recovery, there has been sharp contraction in sequential comparison due to second wave of COVID-19 and growth is still lagging from pre-pandemic level. Hence, economy still needs policy support from government and RBI, which is likely to persist. Additionally, low fiscal deficit at Rs3.21 trillion (21.3% of budgeted) as on July'21 reflects that government can spend more in coming months to sustain economic activities. These indicate a sustainable earnings growth in subsequent quarters. In our view, India is at the beginning of capex revival phase and therefore corporate earnings recovery looks sustainable and premium valuation might sustain. Additionally, government's focus to improve credit growth through credit outreach programme and continued traction in PLI schemes augur well for domestic economy. While concerns over global growth due to recent rise in delta variant Coronavirus cases in different parts of the world continues to persist, we believe that underlying strength of domestic market remains intact. In our view, festive demand, recovery in rural demand and COVID-19 positivity rates will be in focus in the near term. We note higher government's capex and revival in industrials' capex should aid economic recovery. However, liquidity driven market may take a backseat in 2022 and investors must start focusing on quality aspect of companies, in our view.


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