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Crude Oil - Sep 4, 2021 - Reliance Securities

Posted On: 2021-09-05 18:00:36 (Time Zone: IST)


Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

RECAP

International crude oil prices recovered this week supported by optimism about a recovery in global economic growth and U.S. crude inventories fell more than anticipated.

NYMEX gasoline was not able to recover from last week's losses as U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 1.3 million barrels last week.

However, heating oil futures also recovered this week.

We observed that later-dated crude contracts rallied more than the front-month, another sign that market participants expect demand to rise as supply declines.

Meanwhile, oil refineries in Louisiana could take weeks to restart, which will sap crude demand, but that could be offset by slow ramp-up of production offshore due to damage to key support facilities.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week to 425.4 million barrels and capped downside.

Gains were capped after the OPEC+ agreed to stick to a policy from July of phasing out record output cuts by adding 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) a month to the market.

Still, the group revised up its 2022 demand outlook and faces U.S. pressure to raise production more quickly.

OUTLOOK

The market could remain range bound next week as markets will await reports of oil refineries recovering from the hurricane and how soon they could start operations.

Inventories next week also move the markets.

Apart from that no major trigger point is expected for the markets.

So, on the charts, WTI October contract could remain within the trading band of $68.00-73.00 next week. A break on either side will give us fresh ranges.

Domestically, MCX September contract could remain within the trading band of 4890-5295 next week. A break on either side will give us fresh ranges.

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