Post Market views - June 9, 2021 - Mr. Binod Modi, Head Strategy at Reliance Securities
(Time Zone: UTC)
Domestic equities fell sharply today as selling pressure in financials, auto and RIL dragged indices down. Today's correction is the steepest correction after 12th May'21. All key sectoral indices witnessed selling pressure as investors preferred to book some amount of profit ahead of crucial CPI data in the USA. Further, Asian markets also traded weak today mainly reacting on higher-than-expected jump in China's producer price index at 9% for May. Notably, midcap and smallcap stocks also recorded sharp fall. Powergrid, SBI Life, NTPC and Titan were among top Nifty gainers, while Tata Motors, Adani Ports, L&T and IndusInd Bank were laggards.
An improved prospect of economic recovery led by sharp drop in daily caseload, ramping up vaccination process and phased withdrawal of restrictions imposed by states has already led markets to witness fresh high. Beginning of gradual withdrawal of restrictions by states indicates that economic indicators should start improving from current month. Further, despite higher fiscal burden due to announcement of extension of free food grains for 80 crore population till Nov'21 and additional expenditure for Jabs, we believe government is unlikely to compromise on capital expenditure programme on account of higher tax collections. Going forward, with opening-up economy at states level, government's higher allocation towards capital expenditures for FY22E should be helpful in driving economic growth in coming quarters. Additionally, various industries have also announced higher capex programme to sustain growth, which should also aid economic recovery. Therefore, notwithstanding some adverse impact on economic activities in 1QFY22E, a sharp pickup in capital expenditures in current fiscal is still on the cards. Hence, earnings recovery in FY22E remains promising. Further, soft bond yields in the USA, recovery in INR and dollar index remaining comfortable in the range of 90 offer additional comfort. This along with improving prospects of earnings visibility has already resulted FIIs' flow to turn favourable in last couple of days. While domestic equites continue to look good, investors must focus on quality stocks with robust earnings visibility and margins of safety. In our view, sectors considered to be major beneficiaries of capex revival are likely to be back in focus in coming weeks.