Daily Markets - April 13, 2021 - Mr. Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities
(Time Zone: Arizona, USA)
Indian benchmark equity indices saw a rebound from two-month lows after a bout of short covering took the indices higher from lower levels. Nikfty kept making higher highs and higher lows through the day. At close, the Nifty 50 index gained 1.4% or 194 points to end at 14,504.8. Reports of fall in incremental Covid cases and higher recoveries stabilised sentiments.
Volumes on the NSE were lower than the previous day but in line with the recent average. Among sectors, the losers of the previous day i.e. PSU Bank, Auto, Metals, Bank, Realty and Media gained the most while IT and Pharma lost the most. The Nifty Midcap index rose 1.7% while the Smallcap index ended 1.3% higher. The India Volatility Index fell 11% to end at 20.46.
Global stocks ticked up on Tuesday as robust China trade data boosted confidence for a rebound in its domestic demand, with market players awaiting US data expected to show a pick-up in inflation. Asian stocks markets were broadly positive Tuesday after China's exports grew at a strong pace during March and imports rebounded giving investors heart that domestic demand is improving as part of the recovery from the pandemic. Chinese shares fell as worries about further liquidity tightening overshadowed buoyant trade data.
Data from China boosted the outlook for the global economic recovery, with the country reporting that its March exports in dollar terms grew 30.6% year-over-year, while import growth surged 38.1% (highest in 4 years), outpacing expectations of a rise nearer 24%. China posted a trade surplus of $13.8 billion last month, versus analysts expectations for the surplus to rise to $52.05 billion from $37.88 billion in February.
India's indirect tax collection rose in the fiscal ended March even as goods and services tax revenue fell because of Covid-19. Net indirect tax collection increased 12.3% over the previous fiscal to Rs 10.71 lakh crore in FY21. The net GST collection fell 8% over the previous fiscal Rs 5.48 lakh crore. Net custom collections stood at Rs 1.32 lakh crore in FY21, up around 21%. Net central excise and service tax (arrears) jumped 59% to Rs 3.91 lakh crore from Rs 2.45 lakh crore.
Updated forecasts released by private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday suggest that the Southwest monsoon may be 103% of long-period average. Skymet is predicting normal rains for the eastern and central parts of India. The plains of north India and northeast India could be at some risk. Should India see strong rains this year, it would be the third consecutive normal monsoon for the country, which remains dependent on seasonal rains for agricultural output.
Nifty respected the double bottom of 14264 made on April 12 (low made on April 13 was 14275) and bounced back smartly. On upmoves Nifty could face resistance from 14652-14683 band while 14449 and later 4264 remains a support.