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Rupee - April 8, 2021 - Reliance Securities

Posted On: 2021-04-08 20:17:50 (Time Zone: Arizona, USA)


Mr. Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities

The Indian Rupee depreciated marginally against the U.S dollar in thin-volume trade.

The Rupee ended at 74.59 against 74.55 in the previous session.

The Indian currency had risen to 74.20 earlier in the session on the back of an upbeat risk appetite and exporters' dollar sales.

However, the currency gave up gains as most investors believed that the central bank's bond buying plan could be bearish for the currency due to inflationary concerns.

The one-year forward premium was at 3.43 rupees, against 3.53 rupees in the previous session.

The benchmark BSE Sensex and the broader NSE index gained for the third straight session and closed 0.17% and 0.37% higher on Thursday.

The benchmark 5.85% bond maturing in 2030 ended higher at 98.68 rupees, yielding 6.03%, the lowest since Feb. 17, against 98.32 rupees and 6.08% yield at the previous close.

The Indian Rupee could start this Friday on a flat note against the U.S. Dollar.

Weakness of the dollar could lend support; however Indian central bank QE program could lead to inflationary concerns and could cap appreciation bias.

The Rupee could likely open around 74.50-74.55 per dollar compared with 74.59 at close on Thursday.

Again, RBI could be present this Thursday to curb volatility and could cap losses.

Meanwhile, NDF is trading at 74.45 this Friday morning vs. a close of 74.50 on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Asian currencies were mostly weaker this Thursday and could cap gains.

Technically, the USDINR Spot pair could continue its bullish momentum where it holds resistance near 74.70-74.95 levels. Support is at 74.35-74.15 levels. The USDINR Spot pair could trade in a range of 74.35-74.95 levels.

The Dollar dipped to a two-week low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, tracking Treasury yields lower, after data showed a surprise rise in U.S. weekly jobless claims.

The Euro rose on Thursday tracking the weakness of the Dollar.

The Sterling gave up gains against the U.S Dollar on Thursday.

The safe haven Japanese Yen ended stronger against the U.S Dollar on Thursday, tracking the weakness of the Dollar.

The U.S. Dollar was trading flat on Friday morning in Asian trade. However, upside remained capped as unexpectedly strong economic data in Europe, downbeat U.S. jobs figures and an accommodative Federal Reserve have prompted investors to unwind some bets on the greenback.

Technically, the Dollar Index is trading on a flat note where it will hold a support of $92.00 levels. However, a break below we could the index test $91.75. Resistance for the session is at $92.30.

The Euro, the Sterling and the safe haven Japanese Yen has started flat against the U.S. Dollar this Friday morning in Asian trade.


Source: Equity Bulls

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