Technical View - Sep 24, 2020 - Mr. Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
The sharp downtrend continued in the market on Thursday, after a minor upside recovery from the lows on Wednesday and Nifty closed the day on a deep cut of 326 points and closed near the lows.
A long bear candle was formed on Thursday, which indicate that bear's are in a driver's seat and dragging the market sharply lower. This is negative indication and this signal probable completion of an intermediate uptrend of the last 4-5 months and the downside momentum is picking up.
The formation of long range bear candles in the last 4-5 sessions, after the small range bull candle on the upside or in sideways range is also signal a sharp downside breakout in the market. The recent swing high of 11794 and a bearish engulfing pattern of daily and weekly chart could be considered as an important top reversal pattern for the Nifty. The said high is unlikely to be broken on the upside in the near term.
The sharp downward corrective action is unfolding in the market from the important swing highs (11794) and the retracement theory shows almost reaching of 23.6% retracement at 10800 (taken from the low of 7511 and the high of 11794) and the next important lower retracement area is at 38.2%, which is around 10175 levels. Nifty testing this area can't be ruled out in the near term.
The short term trend of Nifty has turned sharply down and there is a possibility of more weakness in the short term. Any minor upside bounce attempt up to 10900-10950 could be a sell on rise opportunity in the near term. Our next downside target to be watched around 10200, which could be achieved in the next couple of weeks. Immediate support is placed around 10560.