Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) reported Q1FY21 results below our estimates on profitability front. Revenues fell 36.3% QoQ to Rs. 88936.5 crore, (our estimate: Rs. 81101 crore) due to nationwide lockdown. The quarter saw inventory loss of US$6.3/bbl leading to reported GRMs at -US$2/bbl (our estimate: US$ 5.4/bbl) while core GRMs were at US$4.3/bbl. Weaker than expected refining performance led to EBITDA at Rs. 5512.3 crore (up 25x QoQ) vs. our estimate of Rs. 8691 crore. Subsequently, PAT was at Rs. 1910.8 crore (our estimate: Rs. 4149.9 crore) against net loss of Rs. 5185.3 crore in Q4FY20.
Valuation & Outlook
Marketing sales have improved from April lows but were still lower YoY. Fuel demand in July fell MoM due to localised lockdowns and monsoon. The management indicated fuel demand is likely to remain lower than normal level for rest of FY21E. Post excise duty hike, IOC increased retail prices by ~Rs. 9-12/litre, which will lead to steady marketing margins, going forward. However, we are neutral on IOC at the current juncture given the volatility in refining margins. We maintain HOLD rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 90 (based on average of P/BV multiple: Rs. 93/share, P/E multiple: Rs. 86/share).
For details, click on the link below: https://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_IOC_Q1FY21.pdf
Shares of INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.86.65 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 87. The total number of shares traded during the day was 717012 in over 4193 trades.
The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 87.95 and intraday low of 86.4. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 62525607.