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Media - Q1FY21 Result Preview - ICICI Securities

Posted On: 2020-07-13 05:19:22

All segments across the media sector were significantly impacted by the Covid-19 led lockdown. Multiplexes were the most impacted segment as theatres were shut across the nation resulting in zero revenues and likely losses across EBITDA and PAT levels. Broadcasters were relatively better as subscription revenues were largely protected, although ad revenues are likely to decline sharply with a sharp decline in volumes as well as pricing.

Sharp ad decline to impact broadcasters

Due to restrictions imposed on non-essential activities, shooting of TV content came to a standstill from March end itself. Therefore, flagship GECs of both Zee, Sun TV depended upon repeat telecast of episodes throughout Q1FY21E, which does not command premium ad rates. Volumes also dried up given overall the macroeconomic activity halt. Ad revenues improved in the later part of the quarter compared to April but on overall quarter basis, ad revenue will see one of the sharpest ever declines. The key relief, however, will be continued growth in subscription revenue. Implementation of NTO 2.0 is still sub judice and clarity on the same is awaited to gauge its impact on subscription growth, going forward. Receivables/collections from LCOs during lockdown could be under pressure. Zee is expected to report 8.2% YoY domestic subscription growth while overall subscription is expected to grow 5% YoY. Domestic advertisement revenue is expected to decline 60% YoY. Notwithstanding, 40% decline in content costs, we expect Zee to witness EBITDA margins at 28%, 490 bps down YoY owing to sharper decline in operational revenues. Sun TV is anticipated to report ad revenues decline of 55% YoY, while subscription revenues are expected to grow 9.2% YoY. We expect EBITDA margin (ex-IPL) at 72%, up 350 bps YoY mainly due to lower content costs and investment in digital segment getting delayed. We expect relatively lower revenue decline in news segment. TV Today is likely to report 25% YoY revenue de-growth in TV broadcasting following ad slowdown and absence of premium rates based events. Digital revenues are expected remain flat YoY. TV Today is expected to report 36.4% YoY decline in EBITDA to Rs. 47.3 crore while EBITDA margin is expected to be at 25.2% (down 500 bps YoY).

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Shares of 20 MICRONS LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.33.75 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 32.2. The total number of shares traded during the day was 10034 in over 183 trades.

The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 33.75 and intraday low of 31.95. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 328468.

Source: Equity Bulls

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