Rollover Report for September-October 2019: Angel Broking
By Ms. Sneha Seth (Derivatives Analyst, Angel Broking):
"Post last three series losing streak, finally we saw a spectacular run of almost 6% in September series all thanks to our Finance Minister for an attempt to revive the economy by slashing down the corporate taxes. Prior to this announcement, we saw index trading in broader range of 10600-11100; wherein the positions formed in futures segment were on short side.
However, most of these shorts were covered in the rally seen after the recent development. In fact, we also witnessed decent amount of long formation during last couple of sessions in September series. Nifty futures rollovers stood at 73%, which is above the 3 month average. The rollover figure hints that longs formed in the end of last series have been rolled over to October series. As far as stronger hands are concerned, they continued curbing liquidity for last 5 months; they were net sellers of Rs. 5941 crores in September series. In F&O space too, they added short positions for the major part of the series but preferred lightening up 60% of their positions series on series. Such unwinding shall be taken optimistically and must keep a close watch on their positions in the coming series. Considering the above data point, we expect continuation of recent upmove and hence, would advise traders to trade with a positive bias.
The rollover for the banking index has been shedding since last two series. The percentage now stands at only 58%, which far below the 3 month average of 67%. In addition, we saw 40% reduction in open interest MoM and hence we believe this index is light in terms of OI. Traders are advised to wait for further development before initiating any aggressive positions."