Mr. Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research
Nifty closes above 11K mark after 23 weeks as the longest consolidation comes to an end with a decisive breakout. We are yet to see Nifty surpassing the crucial zone of 11180. despite negative global cues we have seen outperformance from domestic equities market this week as INR also appreciated along with muted demand in crude oil.
Global markets have been taking a hit throughout this week after a long pullback it has seen from February. We are seeing some decoupling of Indian markets from global markets in the last few months. On the other hand, we have also seen some positive flow from FII and DII into equity markets which has also turned sentiments positive for the investors.
As this week witnessed a Long green candlestick with a close above its previous resistances it is important to hold the lower levels so to validate the eventual breakout and attract some fresh money from bulls. If not so, we may again see some selling pressure from upper levels.
In the coming week, fundamentals, economic data, and domestic cues will play a major role since we have a large number of data releases lined up. CPI Inflation, Industrial output, and cumulative industrial output will have a major role in giving some important cues to the market. The Cumulative industrial output was at 4.6% while a drop was seen in Industrial output which came at 2.4% and is expected to be around 2%.
With that, we have some important data like WPI Food inflation, fuel inflation, and BOP. Though inflation has been under control and within the projected range of RBI.
We are cautiously optimistic on the market for coming week because above 11K Nifty has been a trap for bulls in the last couple of weeks, in fact above 10900 on a conservative basis. So it is needed to see if it is able to breach the much awaited 11180 levels. A breakout should be seen as the start of a trend while failure would be a buffet for bears.