Mr. Debadrata Bhattacharjee, Head of Research, CapitalAim
As the Government Present the Interim budget 2019 tomorrow, ahead of Lok Sabha polls. General public is waiting with great expectation of extending the tax slab to 5 lakh from current 2.5 lakh. We strongly believe that this budget is a populist budget & can drag markets down. Market may reacts to the fiscal measures taken by govt. in this budget. If the measures are not in line with markets expectation then definitely, we see a deeper correction ahead in markets.
If the news on LTCG and STT changes is confirmed by finance ministry on budget day then we would say that this will help markets to form liquidity as foreign Institutions will invest more. In previous budgets when LTCG and STT was increased by government, that created lack of liquidity in market as FII's started putting their money in some other rival emerging markets, where they can make money instead of paying higher tax in India.
Budget Prospective Stocks :
Following are the stocks for trading on the day of Budget and next 2-3 consecutive days:
UPL : Buy| ABOVE : Rs 794| Target: Rs 825
UPL is very focused stock ahead of union budget. Govt.'s focus on farmers, lead UPL to a new high. If govt. gives a special package to fertilizer companies these are the stock that perform well in this session. Stock is trading in a range of 790 on the upper side and 740 in lower sideline. RSI and MACD momentum stock UPL price to upper band, 825 is the likely target in this counter.
CHAMBELFERT: Buy| ABOVE : Rs 180| Target: Rs 190
Chambel fertilizer is another story related budgeting stock. Technically, Breaking the Channel line can lead it to 190 level in near short term. RSI indicator is above 70 points and headed to higher. Till it intakes in higher range of RSI index momentum to upside is intact. MACD indicator makes histogram on buying side momentum that reflects upside movement.