Mutual Funds Commodities Research Tax Planning IPO Our Team Contact Us    
Google
Web www.equitybulls.com
Market Commentary

| More

Looks like another year of normal monsoon: Angel Broking

Posted On: 2018-04-16 21:54:24

Views of Mr. Mayuresh Joshi (Fund Manager, Angel Broking):

"The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected the monsoon for the year 2018 at 97% of the long term average (LTA). Normally, monsoon in the range of 96% to 104% of LTA is considered to be a normal monsoon. While monsoon above 110% of LTA is considered excessive, monsoon below 90% of LTA is classified as drought conditions. The IMD releases its first preliminary forecast in April and this is followed by another forecast in June, which gives a more realistic picture of the monsoons. In fact, the detailed estimates of monsoon distribution will be known by June by when there will be a clearer picture on El Nino.

After 2 years of drought in 2014 and 2015 India had normal monsoons in 2016 and 2017. In fact the year 2016 saw record Kharif output although 2017 saw sharp regional disparities in rainfall. Even this year the dispersion could be quite wide with the IMD projecting a 56% probability of excess rainfall and a 44% probability of deficit rainfall conditions. Every year, apart from the quantum of rains, the distribution of monsoons also matter. That is because delayed monsoons means that the sowing season is lost and the Kharif output gets negatively impacted.

The only private sector weather forecaster in India, Skymet, had earlier projected the monsoon at 99% of LTA for this year. Normal monsoons are the key to a good Kharif harvest which is essential to keep CPI inflation in check. This will also be the first Kharif sowing after the government had fixed the MSP at 150% of the cost of production in Budget 2018. Hence the impact of monsoons this year on the retail inflation would be key for the RBI to calibrate its future trajectory on repo rates."


Source: Equity Bulls

Click here to send ur comments or to feedback@equitybulls.com





Other Headlines:

State elections will certainly provide directional view to market volatility : Epic Research

RBI Monetary Policy - Comments by Karan Mehrishi, Lead Economist at Acuité Ratings and Research

10747 becomes the crucial support now: Angel Broking

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for second time in a row

Comment on post RBI MPC meet - Mr. Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research

Market View - December 04, 2018

Index consolidating in the absence of a trigger: Angel Broking

Highest single series gains after March 2016: Angel Broking

Market at a corridor of uncertainty: Angel Broking

10600 becomes a strong support for the current series: Angel Broking

Banking was the charioteer of the spectacular rally: Angel Broking

Market will look for GDP data at the end of month along with expiry : Epic Research

Nifty in a No Trade Zone of 10600 - 10800: Angel Broking

Market at crucial juncture, 10800 - 10850 to watch out for: Angel Broking

NRI deposits highest since FY14 - Acuité Ratings

Seems a breather due to underperformance of few heavyweights: Angel Broking

Market will crucially watch for Manufacturing PMI, Infrastructure output's numbers & ICICI bank's result : Epic Research

All eyes on 10200 now:Angel Broking

Market Strategies for Tuesday, October 16, 2018 from Share India Securities Ltd

Quarterly number of crucial companies may have a larger impact on specific factors : Epic Research

It's a bear momentum - Market crash - Epic Research

Thursday morning wiped off Rs 4 lakh crore of investor wealth within 5 minutes

Expect further bounce back in midcap universe: Angel Broking

No respect for 200 day SMA as well: Angel Broking

SBI Ecowrap - Excise cut most welcome, states are already cutting in tandem: Short term steps by RBI now a must for currency market stability

RBI's Policy decision will be crucial for coming week market : Epic Research

Expectation from RBI Monetary Policy - Karan Mehrishi, Lead Economist at Acuité Ratings and Research

Nifty to continue its downtrend for lower targets of 10600 - 10700 : Epic Research

Market View - Mr. Abhijeet Dey - BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Nifty needs to close past 11340 to show some corrective upside

All eyes will be on crude oil movement and INR in the coming week : Epic Research

After a decline, appearance of Hammer pattern indicates a trend reversal

Nifty recovered some ground, Metal universe poised for strong move: Angel Broking

Nifty will consolidate next week before any fresh breakout on either side defining the short term trend : Epic Research

Bullish Hammer activated, further recovery on cards: Angel Broking

Oversold levels may allow for further bounce towards 11500-11540

Smart tail-end recovery looks encouraging, 'Metal' to continue outperformance: Angel Broking

Nifty has formed big red candle stick pattern on daily chart - Equity99

Still just a profit booking and not a trend reversal: Angel Broking

Market will look for IIP and Inflation data in Mid September : Epic Research

The index is likely to enter into a corrective trend - Market Strategy Aug 31, 2018 - Share India Securities Ltd

No obstacle seen before 11900, do watch out for 'Metal' space: Angel Broking

Further liberalization can help double rural income faster in India - Rajiv Ranjan Singh

Weekly Market Outlook - Rahul Sharma, Senior Research Analyst, Equity99

Floods to have a significant impact on the Kerala economy - Acuité Ratings & Research

Nifty expects to range between 11430 - 11600 for coming week market : Epic Research

Large caps and blue chips leading momentum for coming week market : Epic Research

Nifty has a strong support for 11295-11235 for coming week - Equity99

Keep using declines, further legs to unfold: Angel Broking

Economy Update: Monetary Policy - Kotak







Website Created & Maintained by : Chennai Scripts
West Mambalam, Chennai - 600 033,
Tamil Nadu, India

disclaimer copyright © 2005 - 2018