Views of Mr. Ritesh Kumar Sahu (Fundamental Analyst - Agri Commodities, Angel Commodities Broking):
"During the current week, Guar futures expected to close higher for the third consecutive week followed by cardamom and castor seed while edible oil and oil seed prices have recovered in the current week on expectation of good physical demand as festival seasons are nearing. However, the prices of Turmeric and Mentha closed in negative on account of corrections from the higher levels due to lower demand while coriander prices have slipped further on higher supplies and steady demand.
The most active October delivery contract of Guar complex on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange (NCDEX), closed higher for third consecutive week on reports of good export demand for guar gum despite higher acreage reported in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Guar seed prices surged about 4.7% or Rs. 176 to close at Rs. 3,906 per quintal while guar gum gain 3.06% or Rs. 243 to close at at Rs. 8,185 per quintal.
India's guar gum exports for first three month of FY 2017-18 i.e. Apr-Jun recorded higher by 54% at 145,775 tonnes compared to 94,585 tonnes a year ago, due to higher demand from the US. Rajasthan, have sown guar over 25 lakh hectares so far this year, up from 20.4 lakh hectare during the same period last year while Gujarat planted about 1.68 lakh hectares up from 1.17 lakh hectares till first week of August. Despite higher acreage of guar in the country, there are reports of large scale damage to standing guar crop due to large excess rains in the major guar sowing districts of Western Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Cardamom futures jumped higher for the fourth successive week tracking a firm trend in the physical market amid lower arrivals and rising demand. At Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom delivery for September rose by 2.1% or Rs. 24 to Rs 1,180 per kg during the current week. In last one month the prices have surged about 15% or Rs. 160 mainly due to poor monsoon rains during the last two months which delayed the harvest for the new season crop.
The cardamom arrivals for auction dropped by about 20% this year during June and July to 3035 tonnes compared to 3772 tonnes last year. Thus, prices of cardamom have seen upward movement since the beginning of the harvest season in June and are up by 24% on year. Moreover, the exports of cardamom are pegged at 1,097 tonnes, up 27% in the first two months of FY 2017/18 according to Department of Commerce, GoI.
Castor seed futures on NCDEX is heading for first weekly gains in 4 weeks supported by highest ever monthly export volume of castor meal and reports of crop damage in Gujarat due to heavy rains. The benchmark castor seed contract on NCDEX for September delivery is up more than 1.8 % or Rs. 82 to close at Rs. 4,532 per quintal, its highest level in three weeks. As per SEA data release, India's castor meal exports in June was revised to 1,19,315 tonnes, highest single month export, up 190% on year. In June last year, exports were about 40,591 tonnes. Moreover, for Apr-Jun, exports of castor meal were at 1,49,881 tonnes, significantly higher than 80,808 tonnes during the same period in the previous year.
MCX Cotton for October delivery is heading for third consecutive weekly rise of 0.16% or Rs. 30 to trade at Rs. 18,600 per bale. The prices have surged to Rs. 19,140 on Thursday but it plunge about Rs. 250 or 1.32% the same day tracking weak trend in International cotton prices due to higher projections for U.S. and global production by USDA for the 2017/18 crop year. Domestic cotton prices are still concern over acreage loss to heavy rains and yield loss due to attack of pest in key cotton producing states.
Among other spices, NCDEX Jeera for Sep delivery contract gain of Friday but closed lower by 0.76% or Rs. 150 to close at Rs. 19,525 per quintal this week as market participants initiated fresh selling at higher levels. The prices have been quite volatile touching the high level of Rs. 19,725 on reports lower arrivals in Gujarat on expectation of damage to stored jeera due to heavy rains but lower export demand pressurize prices.
Turmeric futures for September delivery on NCDEX fall by 4.7% or Rs. 362 this week as market participants initiated fresh selling tracking weak spot market and good sowing progress. Moreover, forecast of good rains in coming weeks in south may keep the prices under pressure. In Telangana, acreage under turmeric, as on 9th August, down 2.3% to 44,299 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 43,315 hectares. Similarly, coriander prices have also slipped by more than 4% this week to close at Rs. 4,635 per quintal. This is 4th consecutive weekly loss amid higher supplies and steady demand in the physical market. Coriander exports from the country were down by 16% to 31,995 tonnes in 2016/17 while imports have surged by 76.8% to 45,830 tonnes keeping higher supplies in domestic market.
The Mentha futures for September Delivery closed lower this week after five weeks of higher weekly closing due to profit booking at higher levels. MCX Mentha fall more than 3% or Rs. 35, this week to close at Rs. 1,134.5 per kg.
Soybean and rmseed futures on NCDEX closed higher this week on bargain buying and anticipation of good physical demand once the government hike import duty of edible oil to support oilseed prices which is traded at minimum support prices since last few months. Edible oil futures - Soy oil and Crude Palmoil (CPO) - have moved higher this week tracking firm international prices and hoping of improving demand in the domestic market during festival season."