Coal India (CIL) reported a mixed set of Q3FY21 numbers wherein topline and EBITDA came in line with our estimate. However, PAT came in lower than our estimate on the back of subdued other income and higher than expected effective tax rate. CIL reported sales volume of 154 million tonnes (MT), up 9% YoY, 15% QoQ (our estimate: 155 MT). Consolidated operating income for the quarter was at Rs. 23686 crore, up 2% YoY, 12% QoQ (our estimate of Rs. 24625 crore). Consolidated EBITDA was at Rs. 5165 crore (up 4% YoY, 30% QoQ) against our estimate of Rs. 5415 crore. Consolidated EBITDA margin came in at 21.8% (up 38 bps YoY, 301 bps QoQ), broadly in line with our estimate of 22.0%. EBITDA/tonne came in at Rs. 335/tonne against our estimate of Rs. 350/tonne (Rs. 350/tonne in Q3FY20 and Rs. 297/tonne in Q2FY21). Consolidated other income for the quarter was at Rs. 640 crore (down 54% YoY, 40% QoQ), lower than our estimate of Rs. 1025 crore. Effective tax rate came in at 35% against our estimate of 25% (26% in Q3FY20, 27% in Q2FY21). Ensuing consolidated PAT came in at Rs. 3084 crore (down 21% YoY but up 4% QoQ), lower than our estimate of Rs. 3922 crore.
Valuation & Outlook
CIL reported a mixed set of numbers for Q3FY21. Going forward, we model sales volume of 585 MT for FY21E, 625 MT for FY22E and 650 MT for FY23E. Furthermore, we expect EBITDA margins to hover at ~18% over the next couple of years (we model consolidated EBITDA margin of 18.3% for FY22E and 18.4% for FY23E). We introduce FY23E estimates and roll over our valuations to FY23E. We value the stock at 4.5x FY23E EV/EBITDA and arrive at a target price of Rs. 140 (earlier Rs. 130). We maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock.
For details, click on the link below: https://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_CoalIndia_Q3FY21.pdf
Shares of COAL INDIA LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.133.75 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 132.3. The total number of shares traded during the day was 795685 in over 5852 trades.
The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 135.3 and intraday low of 132.3. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 106708904.