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Automobiles (wholesale) - Wholesale dispatches rise amidst modest retail trends - ICICI Securities

Posted On: 2020-12-01 22:11:45 (Time Zone: Arizona, USA)

Two-wheeler (2W): Wholesales clock double-digit growth

- Hero MotoCorp (Hero) has reported sales of ~591k units, up 14% YoY. Domestic scooters outperformed motorcycles as it grew ~33% vis--vis 13% (for the latter). Overall domestic sales grew 14% YoY while exports were up 40% YoY.

- TVS Motors (TVSM) has reported 21% YoY growth to ~323k units (down 18% MoM). Domestic sales grew 29% YoY to ~249k units while exports remained flat YoY at ~74k units (driven by ~35% drop in 3W exports). On segmental level, 2W sales grew by a similar 25% to ~311k units and 3W sales shrunk 11% YoY to ~11.2k units largely due to lack of public mobility. On a sub-segment basis, motorcycles and scooters both grew 26% YoY to 133k and 106k units respectively while mopeds clocked 21% YoY growth to 72k units.

- Bajaj Auto (BAL) has reported 5% YoY growth to ~422k units during the month. Domestic sales declined 4% to ~199k units while exports grew 14% YoY to ~223k units. On a segmental level, motorcycles grew 12% YoY to ~385k units due to higher demand for Pulsar with domestic sales growth of 7% YoY at 188k units. 3Ws declined 38% YoY to ~37k units with domestic sales down 66% at 10.7k units.

- Royal Enfield has reported ~6% YoY improvement to 63.8k units, with new product launch (Meteor) likely to drive growth in H2FY21. Motorcycle sales in 350cc segment grew 2% YoY to ~57k units while >350cc segment grew 51% to ~6.4k units. Exports reported 122% growth to 4.7k units.

- HMSI reported 9% YoY growth with domestic sales up 11% at 412k units while exports down 11% at 20.5k units.

Passenger vehicles (PVs): Entry-level segment witnesses sharp reduction

- Maruti Suzuki (Maruti) has reported a marginal 2% YoY growth at ~153k units. However, the mini-vehicle segment slumped 15% YoY to ~22.3k units while compact segment declined 2% YoY to ~77k units. UV segment despatches grew only 2% YoY at ~24k units, while despatches to Toyota grew 130% to 5.2k units (likely due to Brezza variant - Urban Cruiser launch). Exports were up 30% to 9k units.

- Mahindra & Mahindra's (M&M) volumes reported 24% YoY growth to ~18.2k units with UV segment growing 27% YoY to ~18k units. UV segment growth is below market possibly due to better competitive performance in urban markets from OEMs like Hyundai and Kia. M&M's new Thar has already crossed >20,000 bookings.

- Tata Motors posted the highest volume growth amongst all PV OEMs with 108% YoY growth at 21.6k units, maintaining its position as the 3rd largest player as its key models like Altroz and Nexon continue to witness growth.

- Hyundai posted 9% YoY growth in volumes at 48.8k units while exports declined 35% YoY to 10.4k units. Company is witnessing strong sales from the recently launched second-generation Creta, Venue iMT and Aura models.

Our view: Softening of Nov'20 dispatches appears to be a sign of lower than expected festive sales (Oct, Nov'20 combined) as the second phase of festive season (Diwali period) was below OEM expectations. Rising incentive schemes across segments post festive season, lack of price increase even in wake of higher input costs correlate with the fragility of the consumer sentiment. We believe channel inventory clearance remains key priority for Dec'20; thus, expect incentives to increase further by end of 3Q.

- Kia Motors has reported 50% YoY growth to ~21k units, (short of highest monthly sales volumes at ~23.8k units in Sep'20). The recently launched compact SUV Sonet has already received strong response with 11.5k units sold in Nov'20 making Kia the fourth largest carmaker in India.

- MG Motors' Hector, launched in Jul'19, and the recently launched Gloster, are growing steadily to reach highest ever sales of 4,163 units (up 29% YoY).

- Toyota's volumes were up 2% YoY to ~8.5k units. Launch of its Urban Cruiser Compact SUV (rebadged version of Maruti Brezza SUV) in Sep'20 has boosted sales for Toyota.

- Honda's volumes grew 55% YoY to ~10k units; lack of attractive compact SUV offerings have seems to have hampered growth rebound.

CVs: M&HCVs witness slow improvement even as LCV's continue to grow well; rural demand continues to supports tractor sales

- Ashok Leyland's domestic CV volumes were marginally higher at 4% YoY to ~9.7k units due to continued weakness in M&HCV segment with 17% YoY decline to ~4.4k units. Domestic LCVs witnessed strong 31% YoY growth to ~5.3k units. Exports declined ~17% YoY to 932 units.

- Eicher Motors' CV segment volumes grew 3% YoY to 3.7k units.

- Escorts' tractor volumes rose 33% to ~10.2k units. Domestic volumes improved by a similar 31% YoY at ~9.6k units while exports stood at 503 units. Volumes were supported by better monsoon, kharif sowing, and better crop price realisations.

- Mahindra & Mahindra's (M&M) CV segment volumes grew 9% YoY at ~19k units as LCVs < 3.5T grew 11% while LCVs > 3.5T and M&HCVs declined 31%. Volumes in 3W segment dropped by a sharp 42% to 3,854 units.

Tractor dispatches clocked growth of 56% YoY to ~33k units as domestic sales were up 55% to ~31.6k units. With strong monsoon, higher kharif acreage, and continued government support including higher MSP, continued revival of agrarian demand will be key monitorables in upcoming kharif season.

- Tata Motors' domestic CV segment volumes declined 5% YoY to ~26.2k units. M&HCV sales fell ~36% YoY to ~5.7k units. LCV volumes were up ~9% YoY to ~20.5k units. Overall export volumes were sharply lower by 40% YoY at ~1.7k units.

Source: Equity Bulls

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