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Gujarat State Petronet - Subsidiary Gujarat Gas drives Q2 growth - ICICI Securities

Posted On: 2020-11-18 02:05:15

Gujarat State Petronet's (GSPL) Q2FY21 standalone recurring EPS was down 15% YoY, hit by fall in transmission tariff. Consolidated Q2 recurring EPS jumped 88% YoY due to 117% YoY surge in recurring EPS of subsidiary Gujarat Gas (GGL). Volumes, which were at an all-time high in Q2, continue to remain strong, despite surge in spot LNG price, driven by GGL's industrial volumes. We keep GSPL's standalone FY21E EPS estimate unchanged. However, we raised GGL's FY21E-FY22E EPS by 26-7% to factor in surge in Q2 EPS and the record high EBITDA margin and industrial volumes. This has led to an upgrade in GSPL's FY21-FY22E EPS by 8-3% and target price by 1% to Rs273. We reiterate BUY on GSPL.

- Standalone Q2 EPS declined but consolidated EPS jumped due to surge in GGL's EPS: Q2FY21 standalone recurring EPS is down 15% YoY, hit by 10% YoY fall in transmission tariff at Rs1,558/scm. Transmission volumes were up 1% YoY at an all-time high of 39.8mmscmd (up 20% QoQ). Q2 consolidated recurring EPS was up 88% YoY as subsidiary GGL's recurring profit surged 117% YoY.

- Raise FY21-FY22E EPS and target price; reiterate BUY: GSPL's volumes had recovered to pre-lockdown level in end-Jun'20 as low spot LNG prices boosted demand from power and helped make up for slow recovery in CGD demand. Volumes remain high despite recent surge in spot LNG price. Surge in GGL's Q2 industrial volumes, total current volumes and Q2 EBITDA margin to record levels made us raise its FY21-FY2E EPS by 26-7%. It has led to an upgrade in GSPL's FY21-FY22E EPS by 8-3% and target price by 1% to Rs273/share (46% upside). We reiterate BUY on GSPL.

Shares of GUJARAT STATE PETRONET LTD. was last trading in BSE at Rs.190.7 as compared to the previous close of Rs. 190.2. The total number of shares traded during the day was 11185 in over 299 trades.

The stock hit an intraday high of Rs. 193.9 and intraday low of 190.2. The net turnover during the day was Rs. 2137238.

Source: Equity Bulls

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